Long-range forecast overview

• November to January rainfall is likely to be above median for most of eastern Australia, with the highest probabilities occurring in November. Below median rainfall is likely for large parts of Western Australia.
• For the fortnight 7 to 20 November, above median rainfall is likely (greater than 60% chance) for the eastern half of Australia, west coast and southern Western Australia, and northern and eastern Tasmania. There is a greater than 80% chance for large parts of eastern half of the mainland. Below median rainfall is likely (greater than 60%) for north-east Western Australia and around the Beagle Bonaparte Coast, increasing to very likely (greater than 80%) for much of the Kimberley.
• November to January maximum temperatures are likely (greater than 60% chance) to be warmer than median for the north-east of Western Australia, the north and west of the Northern Territory, around the Gulf of Carpentaria, and in Tasmania. Below median temperatures are likely (greater than 60% chance) for the southern half of Queensland, New South Wales, Victoria, South Australia, and the southern coast of Western Australia.
• November to January minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for the northern half of Queensland, much of the Northern Territory, the eastern Kimberley, and much of south-eastern Australia. Below median temperatures are likely (greater than 60% chance) along the Kimberley coast, the Pilbara and south-eastern Western Australia, and over north-east New South Wales extending into southern Queensland.
• Several climate drivers are contributing to this wet outlook, including La Niña, a negative Indian Ocean Dipole event, positive Southern Annular Mode, and warmer waters around Australia. The Madden–Julian Oscillation may also contribute to wetter conditions for parts of eastern Queensland during the next fortnight.