Long-range forecast overview

• For May to July, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia.
• May to July maximum temperatures are very likely (greater than 80% chance) to be warmer than median for most of Australia.
• Above median May to July minimum temperatures are likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) western and northern Australia, as well as coastal parts of southern and eastern Australia, including Tasmania.
• This forecast is being influenced by several factors including an ENSO-neutral pattern (neither El Niño nor La Niña) tending towards El Niño in the latter part of the forecast period, and the chance that a positive IOD event may develop in the coming months, as well as longer-term trends. An El Niño WATCH is current.

Drier than average May to July for most of Australia

• For May, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia, excluding southern and western Tasmania, southern Victoria and the northern Cape York Peninsula.
• For May to July, below median rainfall is likely to very likely (60% to greater than 80% chance) for most of Australia. Exceptions are for the northern Cape York Peninsula and southern and western Tasmania where chances of above median or below median rainfall are close to equal.
• It should be noted that May marks the beginning of the northern Australian dry season. This means tropical northern Australia typically has very low rainfall totals, and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the median.
• Past accuracy of May to July long-range forecasts for chance of above median rainfall has generally been high for to very high for most of western and eastern Australia. Accuracy is low to very low for western South Australia, parts of eastern Victoria, Tasmania and northern tropical regions.