Climate outlook overview

• May to July rainfall likely to be below average for parts of south-east Australia and the far north.
• May is likely to be drier than average in parts of northern, western and south-eastern Australia.
• Maximum temperatures for May to July are likely to be warmer than average Australia wide.
• Similarly, minimum temperatures for May to July are likely to be warmer than average for almost all of Australia except the inland south-east.
• For the month of May, days are likely to be warmer for western and northern regions, while nights are likely to be warmer in the south-west.
• The El Niño–Southern Oscillation is neutral, as are most other climate drivers.

Drier than average May to July for far north and south-east Australia

• Rainfall for May to July is likely to be below average (chance of exceeding median is less than 40%) for the Top End of the NT, Cape York Peninsula in Queensland, southern parts of SA, and most of Victoria and Tasmania.
• In May, the drier than average pattern covers northern, interior and far south-west WA, northern parts of the NT, Cape York Peninsula in Queensland, and most of Victoria and Tasmania.
• The week of 26 April to 2 May is likely to be drier than average (chance of exceeding median is less than 40%) over most of the country, except northern Queensland and the eastern Top End of the NT, which are likely to be wetter than average (chances of exceeding the median is greater than 70%).
• It should be noted that May marks the beginning of the northern Australian dry season. This means tropical northern Australia typically has very low rainfall totals, and only a small amount of rainfall is needed to exceed the median.